Predictions

This is one of my favorite graphics — showing how quickly yesterday’s predictions are forgotten while attention shifts to the next big, bold, and exciting prediction.

I have no predictions for you. It’s entirely possible to navigate the market without trying to predict — or trying to predict which experts are going to be right.

If that’s true, then why don’t we see movies about money managers who made big profits without predicting? Why don’t experts go on CNBC and say “I don’t know what is going to happen next year”. That’s because it’s not entertaining.

Good, systematic trading is not supposed to be entertaining.

Profits don’t have to come after a prediction. Your broker doesn’t need to verify that you deserve profits because you predicted something.

True diversification is kind of boring. I like boring. Boring is scalable. My predictions aren’t… and I’m predicting that your predictions aren’t scalable either.

 

Scroll to Top